The aggregate of Middle East business jet data has shown some recovery since the initial weeks post-conflict, but when you look at the country-level data, the picture is far more mixed.
Global business jet activity grew at a modest rate of 1.7 per cent year-on-year in Week 21 (18–24 May). The year-to-date figure (1 January–24 May) recorded a 3.7 per cent lift on last year, marking a 0.3 percentage point reduction compared to the 4.0 per cent YTD growth trend reported last week (through 17 May) but a continued sizeable improvement on the 2.6 per cent increase achieved over the same period in 2025 over 2024. While accounting for 73 per cent of all business jet sectors flown last week, North America grew 4.9 per cent year-on-year, while Europe, the world's second largest market at 16 per cent of Week 21 traffic, contracted 8.0 per cent.
Nick Koscinski, WingX analyst, comments: “The aggregate of Mideast business jet data has shown some recovery since the initial weeks post-conflict, but when you look at the country-level data, the picture is far more mixed. Europe also saw a notable decline last week, although its year-to-date picture is still showing modest growth.”
Estimated fuel uplift data continues to provide the clearest lens through which to measure the cumulative and weekly toll of the conflict on Middle East business aviation. The pre-conflict baseline is Weeks 7–10 (9 February–8 March). While the conflict outbreak occurred on 28 February in Week 9, the material impact on jet fuel pricing did not begin to be felt until the week of 9 March (Week 11), meaning Weeks 7–10 captures operating conditions before the fuel cost shock began cascading through the market. Across those four weeks, Middle East business jet activity averaged 1.5 million USG of estimated fuel uplift per week, establishing the baseline against which subsequent weeks are measured.
While the Middle East region as a whole has shown tentative signs of recovery from the sharp declines recorded in the initial weeks of the conflict, country-level fuel uplift data for a select peer group of the most conflict-impacted markets reveals a more nuanced picture. Data for the four weeks ending 24 May shows Lebanon and the UAE recorded the steepest declines against fuel levels last year (pre-conflict, normal operating environment) with falls of 54.2 and 45.8 per cent respectively. Turkey is the sole market in positive territory with a 4.2 per cent increase, reinforcing its role as the region's operational safe haven. The slight aggregate regional recovery therefore inflates the true picture; stripped of Turkey's resilience, conflict-affected countries continue to see meaningful and, in some cases, severe suppression of business jet activity.
